Iran, Israel and Hitler’s gun are all on the ballot in key primaries in Texas and NC on Tuesday

With war in Iran breaking out just as two crucial states hold their primaries, a new PAC opposing pro-Israel spending will have its first big opportunity to flex its muscles among Democrats.

Meanwhile, a gun influencer with a penchant for Hitler jokes and Nazi symbols stands a chance to ride a scandal-ridden GOP primary all the way to Congress.

What unfolds Tuesday at the polls in North Carolina and Texas could reverberate throughout the midterms calendar as American Jews are facing unprecedented levels of political alienation from both sides of the aisle. Here’s what to watch for.

In North Carolina, Israel morphs from asset to liability

Pro-Israel election spending was already poised to be a hot topic this year even before the joint American and Israeli-led strikes in Iran reignited the issue of the Middle East. Nowhere is that more true than in North Carolina’s 4th Congressional District.

In the state’s densely populated Research Triangle region, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee has sworn off support from pro-Israel lobbying giant AIPAC — which spent more than $2 million for her in 2022. She has taken additional steps to distance herself from Israel, including refusing to attend Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s congressional address in 2024. 

But her main opponent, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, is the one who is associated with criticism of Israel.

American Priorities PAC, which formed last month specifically to counter pro-Israel money, is spending more than $1 million in support of Allam, one of the major factors making the race one of the most expensive in state history. Allam also has the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders and several leading progressive groups, while Foushee has the endorsement of the state’s centrist Jewish governor, Josh Stein. 

In the homestretch, Allam’s campaign spending has focused almost entirely on tying Foushee to AIPAC, as well as to other groups like Article One PAC, which has a pro-Israel leading donor and has spent $600,000 supporting Foushee.

Both have criticized the Iran strikes in the campaign’s waning days, in different flavors. “I do not support Trump’s illegal war with Iran,” Foushee tweeted, without mentioning Israel. Allam, meanwhile, is homing in on Israel: She told Politico that district voters “are ready to hold every leader who co-signed a blank check to the Israeli war hawks accountable — including my opponent,” and said in a video message opposing the strikes, “I will never take a dime from defense contractors or the pro-Israel lobby.”

At the same time, Allam has taken on some outreach to local Jews; among other gestures, she recently read a resolution celebrating the safe return of Israeli hostage Keith Siegal, a native of her district.

Democratic Majority for Israel, a pro-Israel group focused on Democrats, has not issued an endorsement in the race. North Carolina’s Democratic party has recently been engulfed in an antisemitism scandal after the head of its Muslim caucus called Zionists “modern day Nazis” and a “threat to humaity.” Gov. Stein has denounced antisemitism in the party.

Another North Carolina Democratic candidate, Rep. Deborah Ross, has also sworn off accepting AIPAC money in her own re-election bid in the state’s 2nd district. Ross is not facing any primary challengers.

Jasmine Crockett’s anti-Israel pastor may have a big day

One of the most closely-watched races nationally will be the Texas Senate primaries, where Rep. Jasmine Crockett is in a dead heat against another rising Democratic star, state Rep. James Talarico. (Both candidates have signaled support for Israel as a Jewish and democratic state but have denounced the strikes in Iran.)

But whichever way their race goes, the figure coming up behind Crockett is a cause for concern among some supporters of Israel.

Frederick Haynes III, a prominent Baptist minister and Crockett’s own pastor, is running for her seat in the state’s heavily Democratic 30th district and is a clear favorite. Like Allam in North Carolina, Haynes is also a beneficiary of American Priorities PAC, with the anti-Israel group spending at least $72,000 to support him.

Long before announcing his candidacy, Haynes has bucked Democrats on Israel. The day after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks in Israel, the pastor delivered a sermon drawing on former President Jimmy Carter to accuse Israel of “apartheid.” 

“I recognize that we gotta be pro-Israel, yeah we got to do that, or we get in trouble,” he told his congregation in a snippet of a sermon posted to his Facebook page on Oct. 8. “Well, I’m coming to get in trouble.” He continued, “This country’s going to stand on the side of apartheid because that’s its track record.” 

Throughout the war, Haynes would often seek to provide “context” for Oct. 7 or otherwise apply pressure to Israel, according to Jewish Insider. By January 2024 he was pushing then-President Joe Biden to cut off U.S. support for Israel if its war in Gaza continued. He has also disparaged Christian Zionism, in a similar manner to Tucker Carlson and other anti-Israel figures on the right. Prior to the attacks, he had been photographed with Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, calling the Black nationalist with a long history of antisemitism “a wonderful and great man.”

Haynes also opposed war with Iran in a tweet sent the day of the strikes, without mentioning Israel.

Haynes has dwarfed his Democratic opponents in fundraising in the Dallas-area district, recently redrawn by Republicans as part of a contentious mid-decade redistricting fight. 

‘The AK Guy,’ who restaged Hitler’s suicide, could win in Texas

“The man who killed Hitler has got to be a personal hero of mine,” Brandon Herrera declared in a YouTube video posted last year — before an assistant of his told him, in a stagey whisper, that Hitler died by suicide. Herrera then gave his best “The Office” stare to the camera.

That joke is a distillation of the irony-laced, very online humor favored by Herrera, a far-right 30-year-old gun manufacturer and firearms influencer who goes by “The AK Guy” and who on Tuesday is challenging — for the second time — GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales for his Texas seat in Congress. 

In Herrera’s 2025 video, titled “Testing The Gun That Killed Hitler,” he wields the firearm Hitler used to shoot himself while cracking jokes about Nazi salutes and conspiracy theories imagining Hitler’s survival in Argentina. It’s not the only time he has waded into such territory. 

In 2022, reviewing a Nazi-manufactured submachine gun, Herrera joked that it was “the original ghetto blaster” and filmed himself goose-stepping with the weapon over the Nazi song “Erika.” (In the video, Herrera describes the song as “a bunch of soldiers singing about a pretty girl they miss at home” and says, “There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the song we just used.”)

Beyond Nazis, the Herrera-Gonzalez rematch is notable for several reasons. For one, the district includes Uvalde, site of the 2022 elementary school mass shooting, and Herrera has attacked Gonzales for a gun-control vote he made in the shooting’s aftermath. 

For another, Gonzales’s career has become consumed by a lurid scandal in the days leading up to the primary, after a staffer he allegedly pressured into sex later died by suicide — vaulting the political neophyte Herrera into a strong position to unseat the incumbent, who has refused to step down.

AIPAC’s United Democracy PAC heavily boosted Gonzales while avoiding Israel as an issue during the duo’s first showdown in 2024, which ended in a runoff and a razor-thin Gonzales victory of around 400 votes in advance of his general election win. 

Herrera, while saying that he “despise[s] AIPAC” over its spending against him, has also stated that Israel “is far from a top issue for me” and condemned Hamas the day after Oct. 7. “I’m not anti Israel, I’m anti Israel buying US elections,” he tweeted in 2024.

For his part, Herrera has also offered qualified support of military action in Iran, tweeting, “If there must be military action, let it be QUICK, effective, and please God keep our service members safe.” Gonzales, too, is supporting the strikes on Iran, tweeting, “Under President Trump’s close watch, the Iranian people have a historic opportunity to reclaim their country and embrace freedom.”

Another mass shooting in the state, this one with apparent links to Iran, may end up boosting Herrera’s bid as well. After a gunman in Austin outfitted with Iranian-flag clothing and wearing a “Property of Allah” sweatshirt killed three people including himself and injured 14 at a bar over the weekend, Herrera was one of many state Republicans who seized on the issue.

“‘Diversity is our greatest strength,’” the candidate tweeted mockingly, over a photo of the assailant, who was a naturalized American citizen from Senegal.

So where is AIPAC, really?

With an increasingly toxic brand, and facing backlash after a New Jersey primary campaign expenditure that backfired to likely help a pro-Palestinian candidate get elected, it might not be surprising if AIPAC kept a low profile this election cycle.

Then again, the group and its United Democracy Project have reported around $95 million, a massive war chest, and say they intend to spend intensively for the midterms.

AIPAC has made one, possibly consequential endorsement in a Tuesday race: GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is running for senate in Texas. Hunt, however, is considered by most pollsters a third-place candidate in what has shaped up as a tight race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, each competing for the MAGA mantle. 

Opposing PACs, meanwhile, are making a big show of pushing against pro-Israel money. In addition to American Priorities PAC, the Anti-Zionist America PAC, an upstart group whose founder tried to court white nationalist Nick Fuentes, is also backing a few candidates much more on the fringes of both parties. 

Those include Texas Democratic hopeful Zeeshan Hafeez, who is running against incumbent Rep. Colin Allred in the state’s 33rd district and who has cross-endorsed with Haynes; and Republican Mark Newgent, who is challenging incumbent Rep. Keith Self in the state’s 3rd district.