If the past year has taught us anything, it’s that banking on a hostage deal is a bad idea.
But those odds seem to be changing.
Since November 2023, when Hamas released more than 100 of its captives during a weeklong ceasefire, a predictable cycle has taken hold: Israel and Hamas negotiate, with the United States, Qatar and other Arab countries acting as go-betweens. One side or another signals that a deal is nearing.
Then the talks hit an impasse, mutual recriminations fly and the fighting continues. Rinse and repeat.
Except this week, everyone is indicating that things are about to change. For the first time in a while (maybe ever), Israel, Hamas, President Joe Biden’s team and President-elect Donald Trump’s team are all basically signaling the same thing: An agreement to free the hostages could be reached by Jan. 20, when Trump takes office.
“In the war between Israel and Hamas, we’re on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago finally coming to fruition,” Biden said in a valedictory foreign policy address today. He said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today as well as the leader of Qatar. “We’re pressing hard to close this.”
He’s not alone: Jake Sullivan, the outgoing national security adviser, said today, “We are close to a deal, and it can get done this week.”
A Hamas official reportedly said the group’s response was liable to be “positive” if the key points of the deal didn’t change. Israel denied a report that Hamas had accepted the proposed outline of a deal, though an Israeli official reportedly predicted that “the details can be finalized within days.”
“Within days” or “this week,” of course, would mean that the deal would be inked right around the time of Trump’s inauguration. Trump has repeatedly threatened that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages — including seven Americans — aren’t freed by then. Now, some of them may be on the way to freedom.
The proposed deal, according to Israeli reports, resembles the one Biden put on the table months ago: Over the course of a 42-day ceasefire, 33 of the 98 remaining Israeli hostages —many of whom are thought to be alive — would go free in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners. Humanitarian aid would flow into Gaza. Subsequent stages of the agreement would see Israel progressively withdraw from the enclave as more hostages and prisoners are released.
At issue: How many Israeli hostages are alive? How many Palestinian prisoners, convicted of terrorism, would go free? How much would Israel withdraw from Gaza, and when would that happen?
Those aren’t small questions. But there are signs that this time, they may be worked out. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, met with Netanyahu a few days ago, and reportedly said Israel would face “consequences” if a deal wasn’t done.
And Netanyahu is meeting about the deal with his far-right coalition partners, who have adamantly opposed a ceasefire, seemingly in a bid to ensure that his government won’t collapse if he signs the agreement.
A final round of talks is planned for Tuesday. After that, Israel’s government would need to approve a deal — and then, after more than a year in captivity, hostages could begin to be released within days.
Still, some officials aren’t holding their breath. After relaying optimism about a deal, Sullivan said, “If in five days it hasn’t happened, I will be the person who is probably least shocked by that.”
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